Rishi Sunak 'pins hopes on £10bn tax cuts to save election'
2024/01/22

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is pinning hopes of saving the election on Budget tax cuts with claims income tax or national insurance will be targeted.

The PM and Chancellor have ramped up expectations of dramatic moves in the financial package on March 6.

Mr Hunt invoked the Thatcherite spirit of the 1980s over the weekend, with speculation that he could have £10billion to play with due to lower borrowing costs.

But there are worrying signs for Mr Sunak this morning, with claims that his crucial expansion of free childcare faces delays. The government has pledged that all working parents of two year olds will get 15 hours a week funded from April.

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Meanwhile, research by More in Common has suggested Mr Sunak's personal ratings have been tumbling, with just 26 per cent of voters viewing him as an asset compared to 37 per cent in October. 

The government will get official figures on the public finances tomorrow, and the Office for Budget Responsibility watchdog will give a private early assessment to the Treasury this week.

Rishi Sunak is pinning hopes of saving the election on Budget tax cuts with claims income tax or national insurance will be targeted

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Taxes as a share of GDP are at the highest level since the Second World War 

There are claims that Mr Sunak's crucial expansion of free childcare faces delays

Analysts expect the data will give Mr Hunt a boost with £6billion to £10billion more extra headroom against his fiscal targets than at the Autumn Statement.

Mr Sunak has said that there will be 'more to come' on taxes following a national insurance cut in that package - although critics point out the burden is still the highest since the Second World War.

The Chancellor told The Mail on Sunday he wanted to 'relieve pressure on families' and would stick to the plan of 'prioritising tax cuts'.

Mr Hunt vowed to take inspiration from the late Conservative chancellor Mr Lawson, who slashed personal taxation which led to the Big Bang in financial markets. 

'Just as Nigel Lawson positioned the City of London for the finance boom in the 1980s, this period of Conservative government has seen the UK positioned for the massive technological boom we're set to see in the coming years,' wrote Mr Hunt.

'The most dynamic economies tend to be places with lower taxes.

The lesson is clear: supporting businesses with competitive taxes – not more government spending – is the way to growth.

'We Conservatives have always known that, of course but it is worth remembering.

'The plan is working. That's why we need to stick to it. It means cutting taxes, not raising them.'

The UK is at the forefront of a tech boom, said Mr Hunt, with hopes that investment in financial technology, health research and semiconductor development will propel the economy.

It is not clear what form tax cuts will take. However the premier and Chancellor are keen to grow the economy, indicating that further cuts to national insurance or income tax are likely as opposed to targeting inheritance tax or stamp duty.

Mr Hunt may also hold a second giveaway Budget in the autumn before a November general election.

Analysts at Capital Economics told the Financial Times that the cost of government borrowing is expected to go down, boosting Mr Hunt.

Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, told the paper that it was 'plausible' that the headroom could grow by £10billion but also pointed to indications of economic uncertainty.

Mr Hunt will be able to pledge tax cuts using the bonus as long as he meets his fiscal targets to cut debt as a share of GDP over the course of a Parliament. 

Meanwhile, ministers have been accused of 'disastrous failure' in delivering the free childcare pledge.

Setbacks in allocation of funding, staff shortages and IT problems are threatening the timeline of the scheme, according to the Times.

The reforms for England will to allow some families of children as young as nine months to claim 30 hours of free childcare a week.

Under the plans, working parents of two-year-olds should be able to access 15 hours of free childcare from April. That will be extended to working parents of all children older than nine months from September.

From September 2025, working parents of children under five will be entitled to 30 hours' free childcare per week.

But nurseries have not yet been informed how much they will be paid for each of the places, with many warning parents they will therefore not be able to immediately honour the Government's free hours pledge, according to the paper.

There are also doubts about the extension due in September because of a lack of nursery staff.

Jeremy Hunt invoked the Thatcherite spirit of the 1980s over the weekend, with speculation that he could have £10billion to play with due to lower borrowing costs

The Department for Education (DfE) is said to have initially miscalculated the cost of the scheme, resulting in delays in childcare providers finding out from councils how much funding they will get.

The Times quoted unnamed Whitehall sources as saying 'the strategy is flashing red all over the board' and 'September is going to be an absolute shit show'.

A DfE spokesperson said: 'We are rolling out the single largest expansion in childcare in England's history, ensuring working parents with 30 hours of free childcare a week, starting at nine months old all the way up to their child starting school. We are pleased that thousands of parents have already applied for the expansion starting in April.

'However, a pre-existing feature in the system, where parents re-confirm their eligibility every three months, is impacting a minority of parents when combined with a small number of providers who are asking for codes much earlier than April.

'Parents who can't re-confirm online until the second half of February or March will therefore automatically receive a letter with a code from HMRC before the middle of February, without needing to take any action.

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